Parshwati Saha
15-06-2025
India’s interest could be compromised if the Strait of Hormuz comes under attack.
Amidst the ongoing escalating tension between two strategically important West Asia countries- Iran and Israel, India’s interest could be compromised if the Strait of Hormuz comes under attack, as oil imports are dependent on the Strait, says Dr. Mainak Putatunda, Assistant Professor, West Bengal Educational Services. (WBES).
Q. Given Israel’s recent strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites, how do you assess the potential long-term impact on the broader Middle East security landscape?
Answer: Iran's security apparatus faces serious questions after the Israeli strike severely restricted Iran's nuclear ambitions for the near future. With a significant portion of its military brass wiped out, Iran will have to operate primarily through its proxies like Hezbollah. Iran's support to Houthis in Yemen may see a downturn, benefiting the Saudi supported Yemeni forces. Saudi influence will rise in the Middle East, as a result. Iran-backed militant groups will increase their activities manifold in Iraq and Syria. Syria's new regime is particularly at risk from these elements.
Q. India has maintained a delicate balancing act in its foreign policy, maintaining good relations with both Israel and Iran. In light of this escalation, how should India navigate its diplomatic strategy in the region, especially considering its growing energy ties with Iran and defence relations with Israel?
Answer: Although India has stopped buying crude from Iran since 2019, Indian oil imports are heavily dependent on the strategic strait of Hormuz, which will come under threat in case of a full-blown conflict. Already, the price of crude is increasing sharply. As to diplomatic strategies, one must remember that during Operation Sindoor, Israel stood firmly and unconditionally by India's side while Iran gave a more measured response. India will of course want peace in the region but Iran’s open support for an independent Palestinian state and its failure to furnish evidence regarding its atomic programme gives Israel enough cause to take pre-emptive action, a move that India can relate to.
Q. The United States has stated it had no direct role in Israel’s recent actions against Iran. Can it remain distant in this conflict?
Answer: President Trump warned Iran that sans a meaningful nuclear deal, Israeli strikes were on the horizon. However, the US has advocated a diplomatic solution to ease the Iran-Israel tensions in the recent past. Now that the conflict has started, President Trump seems to be warming to the idea of supporting Israel. However, a protracted conflict with Iran may expose Israel's limitations and the US under President Trump has a history of backing away from conflicts when the situation seems less than favourable.
Q. How do you see India’s role evolving in the event of further escalations between Israel and Iran, especially considering its involvement in multilateral forums like the UN and its interests in maintaining regional stability? Could India play a more prominent role in mediation, or is it better for New Delhi to remain on the sidelines?
Answer: Iran has become a member of the BRICS, and it can be a key supplier of crude to India. The strategically significant Chabahar port project is also crucial for India. Thus, a swift end to the conflict and Iran's rehabilitation will be to India's benefit. However, this seems remote if Iran's present theocratic regime remains in power. Considering, India's recent experiences with ‘mediation' attempts and her present concerns about the UN, India should refrain from getting actively drawn to this conflict for the moment.