The Quad Summit 2025, is scheduled to take place sometime this Fall in India.
The upcoming Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) Summit 2025, scheduled to take place sometime this fall in India marks a critical moment for the future of the alliance -- a grouping of the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met the Quad foreign ministers on his first day in office in January this year, reflecting the commitment to the grouping, but experts say President Trump’s foreign policy, which focuses on "America First" strategies, has already created uncertainty among global allies regarding long-term security commitments. Under Trump’s leadership, the Quad’s future stability may be in question, as his unpredictable approach to diplomacy challenges the long-standing multilateral framework that has shaped global alliances.
The Quad has served as a counterbalance to China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, with each member having an interest in ensuring regional stability and security. However, due to Trump’s earlier decisions, such as withdrawal from the Paris Climate agreement and the World Health Organisation -- doubts are being raised about his continued commitment to maintaining the Quad’s cohesion.
One notable initiative outside the direct scope of the Quad, but involving key Quad members – India and the United States -- is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This ambitious project aims to improve trade and connectivity between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, linking India, through the UAE and Saudi Arabia, to Europe. This corridor provides a strategic alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its economic and geopolitical significance cannot be overstated. However, the IMEC faces multiple hurdles, including ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, especially between Israel and its neighbours. The situation is complicated by Trump’s often transactional approach to foreign relations, where the success of initiatives like IMEC might depend on immediate and tangible benefits for the US.
Trump’s stance on China also plays a significant role in the uncertain future of the Quad. Traditionally, the US has viewed China as a strategic rival, with the Quad serving as a key mechanism to counter China's expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific region. However, Trump has reportedly suggested that he may be open to striking a favourable “deal” with China, which could shift US foreign policy priorities. If Trump pursues engagement with China over confrontation, it could undermine the Quad’s unity and its collective stance against Beijing's growing influence. As China and Russia deepen their collaboration, the Quad's ability to present a united front may be jeopardised if Trump prioritises bilateral relationships with these two powers over multilateral efforts. The coming months will be critical in determining the Quad’s role in the region and beyond.
