Syrian president's overthrow shakes global geopolitics, impacting China and India.
The recent overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by rebel forces has sent shockwaves through the geopolitical landscape, with significant implications for key global players like China and India. Both nations have had substantial political, economic, and strategic stakes in Syria, and the collapse of Assad’s regime presents new challenges and opportunities that could shape their future foreign policies.
For China, Syria has been an important part of its broader Middle East strategy, which aligns with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has long backed Assad's regime, providing political support and significant economic investment, including infrastructure development and military cooperation. This relationship allowed China to secure its influence in the Middle East, balancing the presence of Western powers and gaining access to a vital energy corridor.
The fall of Assad poses a direct challenge to China's ambitions in the region. Chinese officials have viewed Syria as a stable partner, particularly for securing energy deals and maintaining influence over Middle Eastern geopolitics. However, with Assad's ousting, these gains are in jeopardy, and Beijing must reassess its strategy.
Moreover, China is now facing potential repercussions from its long-standing support of Assad. Syria's instability could provide opportunities for Uyghur militants in the region, some of whom have reportedly joined forces with various factions opposing Assad. These fighters could view the fall of Assad as a rallying cry to turn their attention toward China’s Xinjiang region, potentially destabilising the area further. The threat of these militants returning to China could heighten the already tense relations between the Chinese government and Uyghur separatist groups, making security a growing concern for Beijing.
Additionally, China's global image as a reliable partner might be tarnished if it is perceived as having supported a now-dismantled regime. This could damage its standing with other Middle Eastern countries and even the international community.
For India, the fall of Assad represents the loss of an ally in the Middle East. India's approach to Syria has always been cautious, balancing its historical ties with Assad’s regime with its larger strategic interests in the region. New Delhi has often been wary of fully aligning with Western powers on the Syrian issue, maintaining a pragmatic relationship with Assad due to shared concerns about terrorism and security.
The regime’s collapse puts India in a precarious position. It risks losing a partner in Syria that could act as a stabilising force in the region, particularly as the nation grapples with rising militant threats. The insurgents that have toppled Assad may not be aligned with India’s interests, and their rise could heighten security concerns, particularly regarding the potential for increased terrorist activity in the region. The disintegration of Assad's power could lead to an influx of fighters and destabilise the broader region, potentially affecting Indian security in neighboring Afghanistan and Pakistan, as both are seen as hotspots for militancy.
India’s diplomatic position becomes more complicated as it navigates the shifting allegiances in the Middle East. With Assad’s removal, India might need to recalibrate its relationships with other influential Middle Eastern states like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran. While India has maintained good relations with these countries, the changing landscape will require careful balancing to ensure that it does not lose influence or become embroiled in regional conflicts.
