India and China resolve border disputes, de-escalating tensions and opening a new diplomatic chapter.
In a significant diplomatic development, India and China have resolved a major source of ongoing tensions -- border disputes that had come to a head in the Galwan Valley during the violent clashes in April-May 2020. The resolution marks the beginning of a new chapter in India-China relations, characterised by a mix of pragmatism, diplomacy, and strategic calculations. After nearly three years of heightened tension, during which both nations’ military forces faced off in one of the most serious confrontations along their disputed border in decades, the two countries have managed to de-escalate and set a path toward more stable relations.
This breakthrough is particularly noteworthy given the long-standing volatility in the relationship between India and China, which has been shaped by not only territorial disputes but also broader geopolitical and economic considerations. The diplomatic success comes at a time when both countries find themselves under immense pressure due to regional and global uncertainties -- an unstable international environment marked by two major regional wars, rising geopolitical tensions, and a shifting global order.
This breakthrough is particularly noteworthy given the long-standing volatility in the relationship between India and China, which has been shaped by not only territorial disputes but also broader geopolitical and economic considerations. The diplomatic success comes at a time when both countries find themselves under immense pressure due to regional and global uncertainties -- an unstable international environment marked by two major regional wars, rising geopolitical tensions, and a shifting global order.
Indian officials, particularly External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, have been clear and forthright in their position that normalising ties with China was inconceivable as long as border tensions remained unresolved. For India, the border conflict in the Galwan Valley and subsequent skirmishes represented not just a physical confrontation but also a symbolic struggle for sovereignty and national security. Jaishankar's assertion that India’s relationship with China could not return to normal until the border issue was definitively settled underscored the centrality of the border dispute in shaping Indian foreign policy.
India’s diplomatic posture was defined by a combination of steadfastness and strategic patience. While firmly opposed to any encroachments on its territory, India also sought to avoid escalating the conflict into an all-out confrontation. Over the past three years, New Delhi’s efforts have been focused on ensuring that the situation on the border did not spiral out of control, while simultaneously working to strengthen India’s security apparatus.
At the same time, India maintained that economic and trade ties with China, while still significant, could not be prioritised over national security concerns. This delicate balancing act reflects the complex nature of India-China relations, where strategic competition coexists with deep economic interdependence.
The Role of Pragmatism: A Shifting Global Context
The resolution of the border issue, while an important diplomatic success for India, also signals a pragmatic approach from both sides. The effects of the prolonged border tensions on broader bilateral ties, particularly trade and investment, were increasingly evident. Despite the strained political relations, India and China continue to engage in significant economic exchanges. In 2022, bilateral trade between the two countries was valued at approximately $110 billion, making China India’s largest trading partner. The trade imbalance, however, remains a point of contention, with India importing far more from China than it exports.
The pragmatism displayed by both nations in resolving the Galwan dispute reflects an understanding that economic cooperation, particularly in the context of a global downturn exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, is in the interest of both countries. Furthermore, with the rise of two regional wars—the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Taiwan Strait—both India and China have a vested interest in reducing unnecessary geopolitical friction and refocusing on economic stability.
India’s need for stable relations with China has become more pressing in light of its broader foreign policy goals. As a key member of the BRICS group, alongside China, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, India benefits from maintaining constructive ties with Beijing, especially in multilateral forums. The changing global order, defined by shifting alliances and the rising power of the Indo-Pacific region, also means that India must adapt to an evolving geopolitical landscape where China plays an undeniable role.
Moreover, India's close strategic ties with Russia—another major power with increasingly robust relations with China—have made it imperative for New Delhi to engage in a careful balancing act. While India continues to deepen its defence and economic ties with Russia, it must also contend with the reality that Russia’s pivot toward China could influence the regional security dynamics in ways that may impact India’s interests.
The Challenges Ahead: A Complicated Relationship
Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, India must remain vigilant in navigating the complexities of its relationship with China. The border issue, while temporarily de-escalated, remains unresolved, and the potential for tensions to flare up again cannot be discounted. Furthermore, the multifaceted nature of India-China relations means that several challenges continue to loom large.
One of the most significant challenges is China’s close relationship with Pakistan, India’s long-time adversary. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has become a point of contention, particularly due to its route passing through Pakistan-administered Kashmir—territory claimed by India. China’s role in supporting Pakistan, both diplomatically and militarily, remains a significant challenge for India, particularly in the context of regional security.
Another contentious issue is China’s continued objection to India’s bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). While China has supported India's entry into other multilateral organisations, its opposition to India’s UNSC ambitions underscores the broader strategic competition between the two nations. Furthermore, China’s growing influence in India's neighborhood—through economic investments, infrastructure projects, and strategic partnerships with countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives -- adds another layer of complexity to the relationship.
The trade imbalance between the two countries is another sticking point. India continues to import a wide range of products from China, including electronics, machinery, and chemicals, but its exports to China are far more limited, particularly in high-value sectors. The trade deficit has been a source of domestic frustration in India, with calls for a more diversified approach to trade relations. While both sides have expressed interest in enhancing economic cooperation, India remains cautious about its over-dependence on China in critical sectors.
