India stands at a critical juncture in addressing its climate security challenges.
India stands at a critical juncture in addressing its climate security challenges, as highlighted by the recent 'Climate Change Projections for India (2021-2040)' report by Azim Premji University. The report presents alarming projections about rising temperatures, erratic precipitation patterns, and increasing risks of droughts and floods, all of which could have severe repercussions on the country’s economy, food security,
and public health. By 2057, India’s annual maximum temperature could rise by 1.5°C under moderate emissions and even earlier under high-emissions scenarios, with regions like Leh likely to experience the steepest increases.
Winter minimum temperatures could rise by 1.5°C or more in 139 districts, with parts of Arunachal Pradesh seeing the highest increases. Changes in precipitation patterns are equally concerning -- while western states such as Gujarat and Rajasthan may witness a 20-50 percent increase in annual rainfall, northeastern states like Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim could face deficits of up to 15 percent. The southwest monsoon is expected to intensify in western regions, leading to potential flooding, while northeastern areas, heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture, may encounter drought-like conditions, jeopardizing rural livelihoods. Furthermore, over two dozen districts in coastal and Himalayan regions may face dangerously high wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 31°C, posing severe health risks.
The Indian government has taken notable steps to address climate security concerns. Initiatives like the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and its eight missions focusing on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable agriculture are commendable. India’s leadership in the International Solar Alliance and commitments under the Paris Agreement have underscored its intent to transition to a low-carbon economy. Additionally, massive afforestation efforts under the Green India Mission and the push towards electric mobility and green hydrogen adoption reflect a multi-pronged approach.
However, much remains to be done to safeguard the future. India needs to invest further in climate-resilient infrastructure, especially in vulnerable regions like the Himalayas and coastal zones. Strengthening early warning systems for extreme weather events and integrating climate adaptation into agricultural policies are imperative to protect livelihoods. Expanding urban green spaces, promoting water conservation, and
accelerating the transition to renewable energy must also take center stage. Collaborative efforts with neighboring countries to address shared climate risks and securing international climate finance are equally essential.
As the projections indicate, the coming decades will demand a concerted, proactive approach to climate security. With its vast population and diverse ecosystems, India’s ability to navigate these challenges will not only determine its own future but also set an example for the rest of the world. Addressing these challenges with urgency and innovation is not just an environmental imperative but a necessity for ensuring the nation’s socio-economic stability and long-term resilience.
